Friday, August 12, 2011

OIl is now $80 a barrel. Does this mean Peak Oil has hit?

No. I know the website you've been to. You're right there is no current alternative to oil, just derivitives. The largest tar sands are in Canada (second largest oil reserves in the world) Most desert countries actually have nice light crude, infact Libyan oil you can pour straight into a desiel vehicle and drive away, it even smells like diesel. Although the major finds have trailed off considerably in the past 50 years, we are still finding it. Ultra deep water drilling technology is coming along at a fast pace, and they reckon they will be able to get to it in the next 10 years. But the actual reserves are just speculation. The price increases in oil these days are directly related to booming economies, ever time an economy doubles, so does oil consumption. So the ultra strong Chinese and Indian economies are demanding double their previous consumption every 3-5 years. Where normal economies are doubling every 10 years. Is peak oil coming....yes. Is it here....not yet. Some countries have reached peak oil in their own country, the UK is one of them. Peak gas, that's a ways off, there is loads of gas, but the demand for that is increaseing all the time as well. The best guesses(and I stress guesses) for peak oil is sometime after 2020. However the days of 35 dollars a barrel are never coming back. OPEC is just managing production now to keep oil at less than 100 dollars a barrel. When peak oil hits you'll know, estimates are that a 10% permanent drop in production vs. demand will cause a 400% increase in the price of a barrel of oil. And that will hit every sector, as all the economies on the planet are driven by....you guessed it....oil.

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